What Is a Token Unlock?
An unlock is the moment previously locked tokens become transferable. It is the payday on a vesting schedule, or the end of a launch lockup, or a cliff. The coins already "existed" on a fully diluted chart; the unlock is when they can meet a bid. That is why FDV and circulating market cap tell different stories.
How It Actually Works
- Calendars are public for any project that is not hiding. Size the tranche against daily volume and liquidity. A $50 million unlock into a $2 million daily book is not a mystery if price sags.
- Markets often sell the rumor and buy the event, or the reverse. Known unlocks get priced messily because nobody knows what fraction of the tranche will actually sell. Treat the date as raised risk, not as a guaranteed dump.
- Some unlocks are to market makers or treasuries and never hit the open book immediately. Some are to early users who have been waiting a year to leave. Labels matter less than incentives.
Risks and Common Mistakes
- Going in heavy the week before a large unlock because the chart looks cheap. It may be cheap for a reason that has a timestamp.
- Ignoring emissions between unlocks. Farms drip every block; cliffs are just the loud days. See emission schedules.
- Trusting a screenshot of a calendar. Verify against the project's docs or a neutral tracker such as DefiLlama.
When It Matters
Position sizing around known supply events, and any time a fully diluted number is being used to call a token "cheap." Cheap against what float, on what day?
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